R. Majadahonda vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 34 Estadio Cerro del Espino· Majadahonda Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00

R. Majadahonda PPG 1.88

3-0 MISS

R. Vallecano B PPG 0.44

Away· +154.1% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Majadahonda face R. Vallecano B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Majadahonda a 63% chance, the draw 25% and R. Vallecano B 12%, so R. Majadahonda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for R. Majadahonda and 0.7 for R. Vallecano B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Majadahonda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.44 for R. Vallecano B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +154.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.2%

Odds: 1.10 EV: -30.5%

Draw 24.7%

Odds: 6.20 EV: +53.1%

Away 12.1%

Odds: 21.00 EV: +154.1%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.5% Odds: 1.50 -28.7%

Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 2.27 -41.2%

BTTS 44.6% Odds: 3.30 +47.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

R. Majadahonda

1.86

R. Vallecano B

0.71

Model SuggestionHome -30.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -30.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+154.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=63.2%