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R. Majadahonda vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

R. Majadahonda

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

R. Vallecano B

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-110.1%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-15.8%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-14.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 90.9% 1.10 -30.5%

Draw 24.7% 16.1% 6.20 +53.1%

Away win 12.1% 4.8% 21.00 +154.1%

Over 2.5 47.5% 66.7% 1.50 -28.7%

Over 3.5 25.9% 44.1% 2.27 -41.2%

BTTS 44.6% 30.3% 3.30 +47.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 63% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Majadahonda1.9

R. Vallecano B0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

R. MAJADAHONDA · PPG 1.88

R. VALLECANO B · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=63.2%

Win probability 1X2

R. Majadahonda (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -30.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +53.1%

R. Vallecano B (A) 12.1%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV +154.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Majadahonda face R. Vallecano B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Majadahonda a 63% chance, the draw 25% and R. Vallecano B 12%, so R. Majadahonda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for R. Majadahonda and 0.7 for R. Vallecano B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Majadahonda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.44 for R. Vallecano B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +154.1%. This match finished 3-0.

R. Majadahonda vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions