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Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Navalcarnero

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Fuenlabrada

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.1%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.0%1-112.7%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.9%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -21.6%

Over 2.5 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

Over 3.5 21.6% 27.9% 3.58 -22.7%

BTTS 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navalcarnero1.4

Fuenlabrada1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVALCARNERO · PPG 2.13

FUENLABRADA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=44.6%

Win probability 1X2

Navalcarnero (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.6%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Fuenlabrada (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Navalcarnero face Fuenlabrada in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navalcarnero a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Fuenlabrada 25%, so Navalcarnero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Navalcarnero and 1.0 for Fuenlabrada (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navalcarnero are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.00 for Fuenlabrada. This match finished 3-1.

Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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