Navalcarnero vs Fuenlabrada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 34 Estadio Municipal Mariano González· Navalcarnero Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00

Navalcarnero PPG 2.13

3-1 MISS

Fuenlabrada PPG 1.00

Draw· -4.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Navalcarnero face Fuenlabrada in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navalcarnero a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Fuenlabrada 25%, so Navalcarnero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Navalcarnero and 1.0 for Fuenlabrada (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navalcarnero are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.00 for Fuenlabrada. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.6%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -8.6%

Draw 30.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -4.2%

Away 24.5%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -21.6%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.3% Odds: 2.00 -15.4%

Over 3.5 21.6% Odds: 3.58 -22.7%

BTTS 48.8% Odds: 1.80 -12.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Navalcarnero

1.39

Fuenlabrada

0.98

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=44.6%