Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / RSD Alcala vs CD Coria

RSD Alcala vs CD Coria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

RSD Alcala

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CD Coria

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.6%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 43.5% 2.30 -5.0%

Draw 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Away win 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -24.4%

Over 2.5 43.2% 52.6% 1.90 -17.9%

Over 3.5 22.2% 31.8% 3.14 -30.3%

BTTS 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.3%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RSD Alcala1.3

CD Coria1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RSD ALCALA · PPG 2.25

CD CORIA · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=41.3%

Win probability 1X2

RSD Alcala (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -5.0%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

CD Coria (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

RSD Alcala face CD Coria in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RSD Alcala a 41% chance, the draw 31% and CD Coria 28%, so RSD Alcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for RSD Alcala and 1.1 for CD Coria (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RSD Alcala are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.19 for CD Coria. This match finished 1-2.

RSD Alcala vs CD Coria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions