RSD Alcala vs CD Coria Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 34 Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val· Alcalá de Henares Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:00

RSD Alcala PPG 2.25

1-2 MISS

CD Coria PPG 1.19

Draw· -3.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

RSD Alcala face CD Coria in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RSD Alcala a 41% chance, the draw 31% and CD Coria 28%, so RSD Alcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for RSD Alcala and 1.1 for CD Coria (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RSD Alcala are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.19 for CD Coria. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.3%

Odds: 2.30 EV: -5.0%

Draw 31.1%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -3.6%

Away 27.5%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -24.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.2% Odds: 1.90 -17.9%

Over 3.5 22.2% Odds: 3.14 -30.3%

BTTS 50.3% Odds: 1.70 -14.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

RSD Alcala

1.35

CD Coria

1.06

Model SuggestionBTTS -14.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -14.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=41.3%