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Socuellamos vs Las Palmas B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:00

Socuellamos

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Las Palmas B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.7%0-26.5%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.4%1-112.5%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 32.3% 3.10 +5.1%

Draw 30.0% 29.9% 3.35 +0.5%

Away win 36.1% 50.0% 2.00 -27.8%

Over 2.5 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Over 3.5 26.8% 34.7% 2.88 -22.8%

BTTS 55.2% 61.7% 1.62 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.2%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Socuellamos1.3

Las Palmas B1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOCUELLAMOS · PPG 1.06

LAS PALMAS B · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Socuellamos (H) 33.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.5%

Las Palmas B (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Socuellamos face Las Palmas B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Socuellamos a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Las Palmas B 36%, so Las Palmas B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Socuellamos and 1.3 for Las Palmas B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Socuellamos are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Las Palmas B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Socuellamos vs Las Palmas B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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