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Colonia M. vs Navalcarnero Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Colonia M.

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Navalcarnero

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 33.9% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0✓ 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colonia M.1.7

Navalcarnero1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLONIA M. · PPG 1.31

NAVALCARNERO · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

Colonia M. (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Navalcarnero (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colonia M. face Navalcarnero in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colonia M. a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Navalcarnero 25%, so Colonia M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colonia M. and 1.2 for Navalcarnero (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colonia M. are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.31 for Navalcarnero. This match finished 0-0.

Colonia M. vs Navalcarnero Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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