Colonia M. vs Navalcarnero Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 33 Estadio Román Valero· Madrid Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Colonia M. PPG 1.31

0-0 HIT CS5

Navalcarnero PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Colonia M. face Navalcarnero in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colonia M. a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Navalcarnero 25%, so Colonia M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Colonia M. and 1.2 for Navalcarnero (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colonia M. are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.31 for Navalcarnero. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 28.3%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 25.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 33.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 58.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Colonia M.

1.71

Navalcarnero

1.23

Model SuggestionOver 2.5  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.31) vs P(Home)=46.3%