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Erzurum BB vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Monday, April 13, 2026

Erzurum BB

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boluspor

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.2%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-14.0%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-16.7%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.5%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-114.9%4+-25.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.2% 73.5% 1.36 +18.6%

Draw 8.7% 22.7% 4.40 -61.7%

Away win 4.1% 14.3% 7.00 -71.3%

Over 2.5 76.8% 61.7% 1.62 +24.4%

Over 3.5 57.5% 40.0% 2.50 +43.8%

BTTS 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.5%

H 87% / xG 3.4-0.7 / O2.5 77% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.2%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 4–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erzurum BB3.4

Boluspor0.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.8% · O3.5 PROB 57.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ERZURUM BB · PPG 2.29

BOLUSPOR · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Erzurum BB (H) 87.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +18.6%

Draw 8.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -61.7%

Boluspor (A) 4.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -71.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzurum BB face Boluspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzurum BB a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Boluspor 4%, so Erzurum BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Erzurum BB and 0.7 for Boluspor (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzurum BB are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Boluspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.8%.

Erzurum BB vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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