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Umraniyespor vs Keciorengucu Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Umraniyespor

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Keciorengucu

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.8%0-26.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.4%1-112.0%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.1%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.6%3-13.7%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 16.1% 6.20 +110.8%

Draw 29.0% 24.4% 4.10 +18.9%

Away win 37.0% 69.4% 1.44 -46.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Over 3.5 30.4% 42.6% 2.35 -28.6%

BTTS 58.2% 60.6% 1.65 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.2%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umraniyespor1.4

Keciorengucu1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UMRANIYESPOR · PPG 1.56

KECIORENGUCU · PPG 1.28

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.28)

Win probability 1X2

Umraniyespor (H) 34.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +110.8%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +18.9%

Keciorengucu (A) 37.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umraniyespor face Keciorengucu in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umraniyespor a 34% chance, the draw 29% and Keciorengucu 37%, so Keciorengucu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Umraniyespor and 1.4 for Keciorengucu (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umraniyespor are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.28 for Keciorengucu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +110.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Umraniyespor vs Keciorengucu Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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