1. Lig
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 25 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
52.0%
1X2
13/25
52.0%
O/U 2.5
13/25
48.0%
BTTS
12/25
48.0%
Exact score
12/25
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
22
Settled
59.1%
Hit rate
13/22
1.59
Avg odds
-9.6%
ROI
-2.1u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=9 77.8% HIT · AVG 1.70 · +31.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.53 · -36.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.58 · -46.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.04 · +4.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-32.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
75%
Hit
+25.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
10
Bets
50%
Hit
-28.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 5 PICKS · 4 HIT · 1 MISS
2 MAY Umraniyespor vs Keciorengucu BTTS -4% 1–4 HIT2 MAY Erokspor vs Pendikspor BTTS -9% 1–1 HIT2 MAY Corum vs Erzurum BB BTTS -1% 1–1 HIT2 MAY Bodrumspor vs Sariyer Home -6% 0–1 MISS2 MAY Bandirmaspor vs Sivasspor — NO PICK 1–0 —2 MAY Igdir vs Amed SK BTTS -2% 3–3 HITApril 2026 // 9 PICKS · 4 HIT · 5 MISS
26 APR Amed SK vs Bodrumspor Over 2.5 -3% 1–1 MISS26 APR Erzurum BB vs Bandirmaspor Home +0% 1–1 MISS26 APR Sivasspor vs Igdir BTTS -5% 2–1 HIT26 APR Sariyer vs Erokspor BTTS -0% 1–0 MISS26 APR Sakaryaspor vs Corum Over 2.5 +0% 0–4 HIT26 APR Pendikspor vs Boluspor Over 2.5 -3% 2–0 MISS26 APR Keciorengucu vs Manisa BB Over 2.5 -9% 2–1 HIT25 APR Serik Belediyes vs Hatayspor Home -6% 4–2 HIT25 APR Van Spor vs Istanbulspor Home +13% 1–3 MISS