Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Keciorengucu vs Manisa BB

Keciorengucu vs Manisa BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Keciorengucu

PPG 1.72 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Manisa BB

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.0%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.5%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.9%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.0%4+-24.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 69.4% 1.44 -18.6%

Draw 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -2.1%

Away win 20.2% 16.7% 6.00 +21.2%

Over 2.5 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 47.3% 45.5% 2.20 +4.1%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keciorengucu2.5

Manisa BB1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KECIORENGUCU · PPG 1.72

MANISA BB · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.72) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Keciorengucu (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -2.1%

Manisa BB (A) 20.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keciorengucu face Manisa BB in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keciorengucu a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Manisa BB 20%, so Keciorengucu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Keciorengucu and 1.0 for Manisa BB (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keciorengucu are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.06 for Manisa BB. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Keciorengucu vs Manisa BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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