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Erzurum BB vs Bandirmaspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Erzurum BB

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bandirmaspor

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-14.8%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.1%1-19.1%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.7%3-15.5%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 56.5% 1.77 +0.2%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.8%

Away win 15.7% 24.4% 4.10 -35.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.9%

BTTS 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 16.1%

#3 1–1✓ 9.1%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 3–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erzurum BB1.9

Bandirmaspor0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ERZURUM BB · PPG 2.33

BANDIRMASPOR · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Erzurum BB (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +0.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.8%

Bandirmaspor (A) 15.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzurum BB face Bandirmaspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzurum BB a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Bandirmaspor 16%, so Erzurum BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Erzurum BB and 0.6 for Bandirmaspor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzurum BB are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Bandirmaspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Erzurum BB vs Bandirmaspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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