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Erokspor vs Pendikspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Erokspor

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pendikspor

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 69.4% 1.44 -33.6%

Draw 28.9% 22.7% 4.40 +27.2%

Away win 25.0% 17.2% 5.80 +45.0%

Over 2.5 49.5% 64.5% 1.55 -23.3%

Over 3.5 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -33.8%

BTTS 54.4% 59.9% 1.67 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.4%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erokspor1.6

Pendikspor1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EROKSPOR · PPG 2.00

PENDIKSPOR · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Erokspor (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -33.6%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +27.2%

Pendikspor (A) 25.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +45.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erokspor face Pendikspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erokspor a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Pendikspor 25%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Erokspor and 1.1 for Pendikspor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erokspor are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Pendikspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Erokspor vs Pendikspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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