Erokspor vs Pendikspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Turkey - 1. Lig Regular Season - 38 Esenler Stadium· Istanbul Saturday, May 2, 2026 13:00

Erokspor PPG 2.00

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Pendikspor PPG 1.44

Away· +45.0% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Erokspor face Pendikspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erokspor a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Pendikspor 25%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Erokspor and 1.1 for Pendikspor (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erokspor are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Pendikspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.1%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -33.6%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +27.2%

Away 25.0%

Odds: 5.80 EV: +45.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.5% Odds: 1.55 -23.3%

Over 3.5 27.6% Odds: 2.40 -33.8%

BTTS 54.4% Odds: 1.67 -9.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Erokspor

1.56

Pendikspor

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+45.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)