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Pendikspor vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Pendikspor

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Boluspor

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.4%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.4%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.0%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 66.7% 1.50 -23.5%

Draw 27.2% 25.0% 4.00 +8.8%

Away win 21.8% 18.2% 5.50 +19.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 36.1% 38.5% 2.60 -6.1%

BTTS 57.8% 58.8% 1.70 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob57.8%

H 51% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–0✓ 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pendikspor2.1

Boluspor0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PENDIKSPOR · PPG 1.83

BOLUSPOR · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Pendikspor (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -23.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.8%

Boluspor (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pendikspor face Boluspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pendikspor a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Boluspor 22%, so Pendikspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Pendikspor and 0.9 for Boluspor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pendikspor are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.94 for Boluspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Pendikspor vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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