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Bodrumspor vs Sariyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Bodrumspor

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sariyer

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.2%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.1%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 58.8% 1.70 -6.2%

Draw 26.6% 28.2% 3.55 -5.6%

Away win 18.2% 23.1% 4.33 -21.2%

Over 2.5 51.1% 55.6% 1.80 -8.0%

Over 3.5 29.0% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

BTTS 52.4% 57.8% 1.73 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodrumspor1.8

Sariyer0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BODRUMSPOR · PPG 2.06

SARIYER · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=55.2%

Win probability 1X2

Bodrumspor (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -6.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.6%

Sariyer (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodrumspor face Sariyer in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodrumspor a 55% chance, the draw 27% and Sariyer 18%, so Bodrumspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bodrumspor and 0.9 for Sariyer (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodrumspor are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.89 for Sariyer. This match finished 0-1.

Bodrumspor vs Sariyer Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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