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Corum vs Erzurum BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Corum

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Erzurum BB

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.4%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 58.8% 1.70 -47.0%

Draw 30.2% 29.0% 3.45 +4.2%

Away win 38.6% 22.2% 4.50 +73.7%

Over 2.5 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

BTTS 54.3% 54.6% 1.83 -0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corum1.2

Erzurum BB1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CORUM · PPG 2.22

ERZURUM BB · PPG 2.06

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.22), Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Corum (H) 31.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -47.0%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +4.2%

Erzurum BB (A) 38.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +73.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corum face Erzurum BB in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corum a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Erzurum BB 39%, so Erzurum BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Corum and 1.4 for Erzurum BB (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corum are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 2.06 for Erzurum BB. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +73.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Corum vs Erzurum BB Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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