Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Amed SK vs Bodrumspor

Amed SK vs Bodrumspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Amed SK

PPG 2.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bodrumspor

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.8%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.3%1-19.6%1-26.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.9%3-16.4%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 67.6% 1.48 -31.5%

Draw 28.3% 24.4% 4.10 +16.0%

Away win 25.4% 18.2% 5.50 +39.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 42.1% 38.5% 2.60 +9.5%

BTTS 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amed SK2.0

Bodrumspor1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AMED SK · PPG 2.56

BODRUMSPOR · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.56) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

Amed SK (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -31.5%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +16.0%

Bodrumspor (A) 25.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +39.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amed SK face Bodrumspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amed SK a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Bodrumspor 25%, so Amed SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Amed SK and 1.3 for Bodrumspor (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amed SK are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Bodrumspor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Amed SK vs Bodrumspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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