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Igdir vs Amed SK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:00

Igdir

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Amed SK

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.0%0-27.3%0-34.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.0%1-111.4%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.5%2-17.2%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.9%3-13.1%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 16.7% 6.00 +69.2%

Draw 27.8% 23.8% 4.20 +16.8%

Away win 44.0% 69.4% 1.44 -36.6%

Over 2.5 55.1% 64.5% 1.55 -14.6%

Over 3.5 32.8% 42.6% 2.35 -22.9%

BTTS 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.3%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Igdir1.3

Amed SK1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IGDIR · PPG 1.39

AMED SK · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.39), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Igdir (H) 28.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +69.2%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +16.8%

Amed SK (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Igdir face Amed SK in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Igdir a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Amed SK 44%, so Amed SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Igdir and 1.6 for Amed SK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Igdir are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.44 for Amed SK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +69.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Igdir vs Amed SK Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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