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Catanzaro vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 31 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 17:00

Catanzaro

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Modena

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 39.4% 2.54 +10.5%

Draw 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -17.4%

Away win 31.2% 37.0% 2.70 -15.8%

Over 2.5 51.4% 51.3% 1.95 +0.2%

Over 3.5 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.4%

BTTS 55.0% 58.8% 1.70 -6.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–1 8.0%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Catanzaro1.5

Modena1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CATANZARO · PPG 1.94

MODENA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Catanzaro (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +10.5%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.4%

Modena (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Catanzaro face Modena in Italy - Serie B on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Catanzaro a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Modena 31%, so Catanzaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Catanzaro and 1.2 for Modena (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Catanzaro are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.44 for Modena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Catanzaro vs Modena Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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