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Monza vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Monza

PPG 2.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Empoli

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-16.1%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-110.6%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.3%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.4%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 60.2% 1.66 -15.3%

Draw 26.4% 25.3% 3.95 +2.6%

Away win 22.6% 21.5% 4.65 +3.0%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.2% 35.7% 2.80 -21.0%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monza1.7

Empoli0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MONZA · PPG 2.50

EMPOLI · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Monza (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -15.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.6%

Empoli (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monza face Empoli in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monza a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Empoli 23%, so Monza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Monza and 0.7 for Empoli (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monza are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.78 for Empoli. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Monza vs Empoli Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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