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Pescara vs Spezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 18:30

Pescara

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spezia

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.2%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.1%1-111.5%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 47.6% 2.10 -5.5%

Draw 27.2% 27.4% 3.65 -0.4%

Away win 27.8% 32.3% 3.10 -8.3%

Over 2.5 57.2% 63.7% 1.57 -10.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 41.7% 2.40 -22.5%

BTTS 58.8% 67.6% 1.48 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pescara1.6

Spezia1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PESCARA · PPG 1.17

SPEZIA · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Pescara (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.4%

Spezia (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pescara face Spezia in Italy - Serie B on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pescara a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Spezia 28%, so Pescara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pescara and 1.3 for Spezia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pescara are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.72 for Spezia. This match finished 1-1.

Pescara vs Spezia Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie B Predictions