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Sporting JAX vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Charleston

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.0%0-27.0%0-35.4%0-4+5.5%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.3%1-37.2%1-4+7.2%2 2-02.3%2-15.3%2-26.2%2-34.8%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.0%3-12.3%3-22.7%3-32.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 5.60 +10.2%

Draw 21.1% 4.40 -4.3%

Away win 58.0% 1.44 -16.5%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.62 +6.8%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.55 +8.9%

BTTS 63.4% 1.73 +9.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 20.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +10.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.3%

Charleston (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 0.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.4%

A 58% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX1.3

Charleston2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.33

CHARLESTON · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.67)

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Charleston in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Charleston 58%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sporting JAX and 2.3 for Charleston (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Charleston. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +54.8%. This match finished 2-5.

Sporting JAX vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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