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Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Brooklyn

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.9%0-26.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.9%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-17.8%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.6%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 34.0% 34.7% 2.88 -2.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 61.7% 1.62 -18.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 54.6% 1.83 -38.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 45.5% 2.20 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brooklyn1.2

Birmingham Legion1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BROOKLYN · PPG 0.88

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.00, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brooklyn (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Birmingham Legion (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brooklyn face Birmingham Legion in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brooklyn a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Birmingham Legion 34%, so Brooklyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Brooklyn and 1.2 for Birmingham Legion (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brooklyn are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.86 for Birmingham Legion.

Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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