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El Paso Locomotive vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:00

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.2%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.1%1-18.8%1-26.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 24.1% 29.9% 3.35 -11.6%

Over 2.5 63.4% 58.8% 1.70 +7.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 61.8% 63.7% 1.57 -3.0%

Home O1.5 61.4% 55.6% 1.80 +10.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 38.5% 2.60 +13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.8%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Paso Locomotive2.1

Oakland Roots1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.38

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

El Paso Locomotive (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

Oakland Roots (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Paso Locomotive face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Paso Locomotive a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Oakland Roots 24%, so El Paso Locomotive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.4 for Oakland Roots (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Paso Locomotive are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.11 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 1-0.

El Paso Locomotive vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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