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Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

New Mexico United

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-112.5%0-27.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.9%2-17.0%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 45.5% 2.20 -27.6%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +1.3%

Away win 37.9% 35.7% 2.80 +6.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 64.5% 1.55 -28.8%

Over 3.5 28.5% 42.6% 2.35 -19.8%

BTTS 52.2% 69.4% 1.44 -24.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 55.6% 1.80 -42.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.1

New Mexico United1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.44

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.14, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 32.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.6%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.3%

New Mexico United (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face New Mexico United in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 33% chance, the draw 29% and New Mexico United 38%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monterey Bay and 1.2 for New Mexico United (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.43 for New Mexico United. This match finished 2-5.

Monterey Bay vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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