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Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 02:00

Orange County SC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.7%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 25.0% 4.00 +78.4%

Draw 26.9% 27.8% 3.60 -1.9%

Away win 28.5% 57.1% 1.75 -30.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 37.4% 34.7% 2.88 +7.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 58.8% 1.70 -39.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orange County SC1.3

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 2.00

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 2.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orange County SC (H) 44.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +78.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.9%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (A) 28.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -30.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orange County SC face Tampa Bay Rowdies in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orange County SC a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 28%, so Orange County SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Orange County SC and 1.1 for Tampa Bay Rowdies (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orange County SC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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