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Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.9%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.4%1-19.4%1-27.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-15.9%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Draw 22.6% 29.0% 3.45 -13.2%

Away win 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 58.8% 1.70 +8.1%

Over 3.5 41.1% 36.4% 2.75 +13.0%

BTTS 63.7% 64.5% 1.55 -1.3%

Home O1.5 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Away O1.5 45.7% 44.4% 2.25 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.7%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.9

Las Vegas Lights1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.50

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +9.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.2%

Las Vegas Lights (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Las Vegas Lights in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Las Vegas Lights 29%, so Miami FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Miami FC and 1.5 for Las Vegas Lights (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Las Vegas Lights. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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