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Louisville City vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Louisville City

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

San Antonio

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.8%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.5%1-110.4%1-27.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.5%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 71.4% 1.40 -32.7%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +0.7%

Away win 27.8% 15.6% 6.40 +46.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 64.5% 1.55 -6.4%

Over 3.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

BTTS 61.8% 59.9% 1.67 +3.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 70.4% 1.42 -30.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 28.6% 3.50 +52.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.8%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louisville City1.8

San Antonio1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.78

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Louisville City (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -32.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.7%

San Antonio (A) 27.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +46.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louisville City face San Antonio in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louisville City a 48% chance, the draw 24% and San Antonio 28%, so Louisville City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Louisville City and 1.4 for San Antonio (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louisville City are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.44 for San Antonio. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +74.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Louisville City vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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