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Indy Eleven vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-110.4%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-17.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Draw 31.8% 28.6% 3.50 +11.3%

Away win 20.2% 26.0% 3.85 -13.3%

Over 2.5 34.8% 58.8% 1.70 -40.8%

Over 3.5 18.1% 36.4% 2.75 -30.1%

BTTS 45.5% 62.5% 1.60 -27.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 57.8% 1.73 -44.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 35.7% 2.80 -30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven1.2

Hartford Athletic0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.38

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -13.6%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +11.3%

Hartford Athletic (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Hartford Athletic in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 48% chance, the draw 32% and Hartford Athletic 20%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Indy Eleven and 0.6 for Hartford Athletic (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.20 for Hartford Athletic. This match finished 1-1.

Indy Eleven vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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