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Lexington vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.4%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.3%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Away O1.5 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0✓ 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.9

Phoenix Rising1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.78

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Phoenix Rising (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Phoenix Rising 24%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lexington and 1.0 for Phoenix Rising (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Lexington vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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