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FC Tulsa vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:30

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Detroit City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-110.5%0-24.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.1%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-18.1%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 39.2% 2.55 +5.1%

Draw 27.2% 33.9% 2.95 -11.9%

Away win 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 42.6% 2.35 +18.2%

Over 3.5 28.8% 22.2% 4.50 +17.8%

BTTS 52.3% 51.8% 1.93 +0.9%

Home O1.5 34.6% 36.4% 2.75 -4.9%

Away O1.5 23.5% 35.1% 2.85 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–1✓ 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tulsa1.2

Detroit City0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TULSA · PPG 1.80

DETROIT CITY · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Tulsa (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +5.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.9%

Detroit City (A) 31.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tulsa face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tulsa a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Detroit City 32%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Tulsa and 0.9 for Detroit City (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tulsa are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 0-1.

FC Tulsa vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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