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Hartford A. vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 23:00

Hartford A.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Pittsburgh

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-114.7%0-27.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.8%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.3%2-16.2%2-23.0%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.9%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

Draw 32.6% 31.3% 3.20 +4.3%

Away win 35.6% 33.9% 2.95 +5.0%

Over 2.5 37.4% 48.8% 2.05 -23.3%

Over 3.5 19.1% 27.0% 3.70 -17.6%

BTTS 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 43.5% 2.30 -25.5%

Away O1.5 30.7% 35.7% 2.80 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.3%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 13.8%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford A.0.9

Pittsburgh1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD A. · PPG 1.20

PITTSBURGH · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Hartford A. (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.0%

Draw 32.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.3%

Pittsburgh (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford A. face Pittsburgh in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford A. a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Pittsburgh 36%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hartford A. and 1.0 for Pittsburgh (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford A. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.17 for Pittsburgh. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Hartford A. vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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