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Brooklyn FC vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 23:00

Brooklyn FC

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-118.6%0-213.8%0-36.9%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.0%1-28.2%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.2%2-13.3%2-22.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.4% 20.0% 5.00 -4.8%

Draw 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Away win 56.8% 64.5% 1.55 -12.0%

Over 2.5 47.8% 61.7% 1.62 -22.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 40.0% 2.50 -17.8%

BTTS 48.5% 60.6% 1.65 -20.0%

Home O1.5 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away O1.5 50.7% 65.4% 1.53 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.6%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 0–2✓ 13.8%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brooklyn FC0.6

Tampa Bay1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 1.17

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Brooklyn FC (H) 18.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Tampa Bay (A) 56.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brooklyn FC face Tampa Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brooklyn FC a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Tampa Bay 57%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Brooklyn FC and 1.5 for Tampa Bay (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brooklyn FC are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.33 for Tampa Bay. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Brooklyn FC vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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