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Notodden vs Mjondalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 13:00

Notodden

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mjondalen

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.5%0-25.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.2%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.2%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 2.45 -0.3%

Draw 28.1% 3.50 -1.0%

Away win 31.3% 2.45 -23.3%

Over 2.5 49.5% 1.62 -19.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 2.50 -17.8%

BTTS 52.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Win probability 1X2

Notodden (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -0.3%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.0%

Mjondalen (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 28%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -61.8%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notodden1.3

Mjondalen1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTODDEN · PPG 0.50

MJONDALEN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Notodden face Mjondalen in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notodden a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Mjondalen 31%, so Notodden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Notodden and 1.1 for Mjondalen (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notodden are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Mjondalen. This match finished 1-2.

Notodden vs Mjondalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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