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jerv vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

jerv

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vidar

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.3%1-15.1%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-17.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.8%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-112.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 83.3% 1.20 -10.0%

Draw 16.6% 17.2% 5.80 -2.2%

Away win 8.4% 9.8% 10.25 -8.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 44.0% 58.8% 1.70 -25.2%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 78.3% 84.7% 1.18 -7.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 29.0% 3.45 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 75% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 4–0✓ 8.4%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

jerv3.0

Vidar0.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JERV · PPG 2.17

VIDAR · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.32 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

jerv (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -10.0%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -2.2%

Vidar (A) 8.4%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

jerv face Vidar in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives jerv a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Vidar 8%, so jerv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for jerv and 0.7 for Vidar (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, jerv are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.17 for Vidar. This match finished 4-0.

jerv vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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