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Arendal vs Pors Grenland Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Arendal

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pors Grenland

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.6%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.4%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 57.8% 1.73 -32.0%

Draw 27.2% 26.7% 3.75 +1.2%

Away win 33.6% 25.3% 3.95 +32.7%

Over 2.5 51.8% 61.7% 1.62 -16.1%

Over 3.5 29.7% 40.0% 2.50 -15.4%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 34.0% 60.6% 1.65 -43.9%

Away O1.5 35.7% 37.0% 2.70 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

A 34% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arendal1.2

Pors Grenland1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENDAL · PPG 1.29

PORS GRENLAND · PPG 1.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arendal (H) 39.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -32.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.2%

Pors Grenland (A) 33.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arendal face Pors Grenland in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arendal a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Pors Grenland 34%, so Arendal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arendal and 1.2 for Pors Grenland (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arendal are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.83 for Pors Grenland. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Arendal vs Pors Grenland Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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