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Eik-Tønsberg vs Træff Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Eik-Tønsberg

PPG 0.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Træff

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.5%0-26.5%0-35.2%0-4+5.4%1 1-03.2%1-17.7%1-29.1%1-37.2%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.3%2-26.3%2-35.0%2-4+5.2%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-22.9%3-32.3%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Draw 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -13.4%

Away win 51.8% 50.0% 2.00 +3.6%

Over 2.5 67.2% 65.4% 1.53 +2.8%

Over 3.5 44.0% 42.6% 2.35 +3.4%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

Away O1.5 65.0% 58.8% 1.70 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob64.3%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eik-Tønsberg1.4

Træff2.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EIK-TØNSBERG · PPG 0.57

TRÆFF · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.98 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Eik-Tønsberg (H) 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.4%

Træff (A) 51.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eik-Tønsberg face Træff in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eik-Tønsberg a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Træff 52%, so Træff are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Eik-Tønsberg and 2.4 for Træff (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eik-Tønsberg are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.33 for Træff. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Eik-Tønsberg vs Træff Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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