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Sotra vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Sotra

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arendal

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.7%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.6%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.8%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 25.1% 25.6% 3.90 -1.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 64.5% 1.55 -5.1%

Over 3.5 38.5% 42.0% 2.38 -8.4%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 62.5% 1.60 -3.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 38.5% 2.60 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -42.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sotra2.1

Arendal1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOTRA · PPG 1.17

ARENDAL · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sotra (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -9.0%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Arendal (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sotra face Arendal in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sotra a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Arendal 25%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sotra and 1.1 for Arendal (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sotra are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Arendal.

Sotra vs Arendal Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions