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Bjarg vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Bjarg

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sotra

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.7%0-27.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.6%1-111.1%1-29.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.1%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 42.9% 2.33 -18.0%

Draw 24.1% 28.2% 3.55 -8.7%

Away win 40.7% 38.5% 2.60 +5.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 33.6% 38.5% 2.60 -12.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 47.6% 2.10 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg1.3

Sotra1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.43

SOTRA · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 35.2%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -18.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.7%

Sotra (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Sotra in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Sotra 41%, so Sotra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bjarg and 1.7 for Sotra (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for Sotra. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Bjarg vs Sotra Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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