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Træff vs jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 12:00

Træff

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

jerv

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.4%0-27.4%0-35.0%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.6%1-36.4%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.2%2-26.2%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -12.7%

Away win 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.6% 42.6% 2.35 -4.6%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

Away O1.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -42.0%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob62.1%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Træff1.3

jerv2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRÆFF · PPG 1.57

JERV · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Træff (H) 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.7%

jerv (A) 50.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV 0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Træff face jerv in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Træff a 28% chance, the draw 22% and jerv 50%, so jerv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Træff and 2.0 for jerv (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Træff are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.71 for jerv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%.

Træff vs jerv Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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