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Notodden vs Sandviken Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Notodden

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sandviken

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.6%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-112.0%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 24.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 46.8% — — —

Away O1.5 27.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0✓ 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Notodden1.6

Sandviken1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTODDEN · PPG 0.83

SANDVIKEN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Notodden (H) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sandviken (A) 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Notodden face Sandviken in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Notodden a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sandviken 24%, so Notodden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Notodden and 1.0 for Sandviken (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Notodden are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.14 for Sandviken. This match finished 1-0.

Notodden vs Sandviken Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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