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Brattvåg vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Brattvåg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lysekloster

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.5%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.5%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 78.1% 1.28 -27.7%

Draw 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

Away win 21.1% 11.6% 8.60 +48.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 41.8% 48.8% 2.05 -14.3%

BTTS 59.9% 59.9% 1.67 +0.0%

Home O1.5 62.4% 78.1% 1.28 -20.1%

Away O1.5 27.7% 26.0% 3.85 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.9%

H 56% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.3%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brattvåg2.3

Lysekloster0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRATTVÅG · PPG 2.00

LYSEKLOSTER · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brattvåg (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -27.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.9%

Lysekloster (A) 21.1%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brattvåg face Lysekloster in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brattvåg a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Lysekloster 21%, so Brattvåg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Brattvåg and 0.9 for Lysekloster (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brattvåg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Lysekloster. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Brattvåg vs Lysekloster Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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