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Bjarg vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 13:00

Bjarg

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vidar

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.8%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-110.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 82.0% 1.22 -21.6%

Draw 18.1% 17.2% 5.80 +3.0%

Away win 17.6% 10.4% 9.60 +41.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 80.0% 1.25 -19.9%

Over 3.5 42.0% 61.7% 1.62 -32.0%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 60.3% 87.0% 1.15 -30.7%

Away O1.5 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -46.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 3–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1✓ 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg2.6

Vidar0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.40

VIDAR · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -21.6%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +3.0%

Vidar (A) 17.6%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Vidar in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Vidar 18%, so Bjarg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Bjarg and 0.9 for Vidar (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.25 for Vidar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Bjarg vs Vidar Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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