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Daugavpils vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 13:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.30 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Grobina

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-110.1%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.6%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-13.3%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 1.85 -11.6%

Draw 29.3% 3.35 -1.1%

Away win 23.0% 3.80 -7.6%

Over 2.5 37.9% 1.85 -29.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 3.10 -21.1%

BTTS 48.5% 1.70 -17.5%

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.6%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.1%

Grobina (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–0✓ 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.2

Grobina0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.30

GROBINA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.30), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Grobina 23%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Daugavpils and 0.7 for Grobina (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.25 for Grobina. This match finished 1-0.

Daugavpils vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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