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Tukums vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Tukums

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Liepaja

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.9%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.9%1-19.6%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-16.1%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.6%4+-23.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 32.3% 3.10 +54.7%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 27.5% 50.0% 2.00 -27.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.0% 2.38 -4.3%

BTTS 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 57.8% 1.73 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.9

FK Liepaja1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.08

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 49.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +54.7%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

FK Liepaja (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face FK Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 50% chance, the draw 23% and FK Liepaja 28%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tukums and 1.4 for FK Liepaja (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.92 for FK Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +62.9%.

Tukums vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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