Today / Latvia - Virsliga / BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava

BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-17.9%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-112.0%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.1%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 56.5% 1.77 -9.0%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 23.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 58.8% 1.70 -14.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

BTTS 52.2% 61.7% 1.62 -15.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 35.1% 2.85 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFC Daugavpils1.5

FS Jelgava0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.54

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BFC Daugavpils (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -9.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

FS Jelgava (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFC Daugavpils face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFC Daugavpils a 51% chance, the draw 25% and FS Jelgava 23%, so BFC Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for BFC Daugavpils and 0.8 for FS Jelgava (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFC Daugavpils are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.00 for FS Jelgava.

BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions