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BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 1.64 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tukums

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.7%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-110.6%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Draw 22.6% 27.4% 3.65 -10.5%

Away win 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Over 2.5 60.4% 61.7% 1.62 -2.1%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Away O1.5 34.4% 39.2% 2.55 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFC Daugavpils1.9

Tukums1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.64

TUKUMS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BFC Daugavpils (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.5%

Tukums (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFC Daugavpils face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFC Daugavpils a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Tukums 23%, so BFC Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for BFC Daugavpils and 1.1 for Tukums (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFC Daugavpils are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.33 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 2-0.

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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