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Auda vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ogre United

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.9%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-15.6%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-18.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-18.0%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-112.0%4+-24.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 82.0% 1.22 -19.5%

Draw 17.1% 17.9% 5.60 -2.5%

Away win 16.8% 10.4% 9.60 +36.8%

Over 2.5 64.7% 70.4% 1.42 -8.1%

Over 3.5 43.2% 48.8% 2.05 -11.4%

BTTS 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Home O1.5 77.1% 80.0% 1.25 -3.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.5%

H 66% / xG 2.9-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.9

Ogre United0.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.73

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.54

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.16 for Home, form 1.73 vs 0.54 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -19.5%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -2.5%

Ogre United (A) 16.8%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 66% chance, the draw 17% and Ogre United 17%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Auda and 0.8 for Ogre United (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.54 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Auda vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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