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Tukums vs Rīgas FS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 24 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rīgas FS

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.5%0-28.9%0-37.1%0-4+7.4%1 1-03.4%1-18.1%1-29.6%1-37.6%1-4+7.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.4%2-25.2%2-34.1%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.9%3-31.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.5% 10.5% 9.50 +56.9%

Draw 22.3% 17.9% 5.60 +14.9%

Away win 57.2% 82.0% 1.22 -30.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 72.5% 1.38 -12.1%

Over 3.5 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

BTTS 60.1% 57.8% 1.73 +4.0%

Home O1.5 35.0% 23.8% 4.20 +47.0%

Away O1.5 67.0% 82.0% 1.22 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob60.1%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.1

Rīgas FS2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.18

RĪGAS FS · PPG 2.75

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.30 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 20.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +56.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.9%

Rīgas FS (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Rīgas FS in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Rīgas FS 57%, so Rīgas FS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tukums and 2.4 for Rīgas FS (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 2.75 for Rīgas FS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +55.2%.

Tukums vs Rīgas FS Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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