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Riga vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Riga

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grobiņa

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.3%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.9%1-14.1%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.6%2-16.5%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-023.3%4+-112.1%4+-23.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% 90.1% 1.11 -17.0%

Draw 16.8% 13.9% 7.20 +12.6%

Away win 8.4% 5.9% 17.00 +25.7%

Over 2.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Over 3.5 43.8% 56.5% 1.77 -22.5%

BTTS 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Home O1.5 77.1% 87.7% 1.14 -12.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 75% / xG 3.2-0.5 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.3%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 4–0 10.5%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga3.2

Grobiņa0.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA · PPG 2.67

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.65 for Home, form 2.67 vs 0.91 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga (H) 74.8%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -17.0%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +12.6%

Grobiņa (A) 8.4%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga face Grobiņa in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Grobiņa 8%, so Riga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Riga and 0.5 for Grobiņa (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.91 for Grobiņa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +55.4%.

Riga vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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