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Moreton City E. vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 08:00

Moreton City E.

PPG 2.57 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wynnum Wolves

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.6%0-21.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.9%1-14.8%1-24.0%1-32.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.3%3-17.1%3-25.9%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-110.9%4+-29.0%4+-35.0%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 1.65 -6.8%

Draw 19.9% 4.20 -9.8%

Away win 23.6% 3.85 -5.5%

Over 2.5 72.6% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 1.77 -5.8%

BTTS 68.1% 1.33 -9.4%

Win probability 1X2

Moreton City E. (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -6.8%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.8%

Wynnum Wolves (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.1%

H 56% / xG 3.0-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 3–1 7.1%

#3 2–2✓ 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 1–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreton City E.3.0

Wynnum Wolves1.7

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 2.57

WYNNUM WOLVES · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.57) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreton City E. face Wynnum Wolves in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreton City E. a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Wynnum Wolves 24%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Moreton City E. and 1.7 for Wynnum Wolves (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreton City E. are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Wynnum Wolves. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Moreton City E. vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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