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Peninsula vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 06:00

Peninsula

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.5%1-13.9%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.1%2-16.8%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-116.8%4+-29.4%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 1.22 -17.4%

Draw 17.8% 5.75 +1.4%

Away win 14.5% 10.00 +27.0%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.25 -9.9%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.65 -12.7%

BTTS 61.6% 1.50 -7.6%

Home Over 1.5 77.8% 1.17 -9.0%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 3.25 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 90%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 68% / xG 3.5-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 3–0 7.1%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 4–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peninsula3.5

Brisbane Roar B1.1

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PENINSULA · PPG 2.38

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Peninsula (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +1.4%

Brisbane Roar B (A) 14.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peninsula face Brisbane Roar B in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peninsula a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Brisbane Roar B 14%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Peninsula and 1.1 for Brisbane Roar B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peninsula are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.43 for Brisbane Roar B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.0%.

Peninsula vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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