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Peninsula vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 06:00

Peninsula

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.5%1-13.9%1-22.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.1%2-16.8%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-116.8%4+-29.4%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 82.0% 1.22 -17.4%

Draw 17.8% 17.4% 5.75 +1.4%

Away win 14.5% 10.0% 10.00 +27.0%

Over 2.5 72.1% 80.0% 1.25 -9.9%

Over 3.5 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 77.8% 85.5% 1.17 -9.0%

Away O1.5 36.3% 30.8% 3.25 +18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 68% / xG 3.5-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 7.9%

#2 3–0 7.1%

#3 4–1 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 4–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peninsula3.5

Brisbane Roar B1.1

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PENINSULA · PPG 2.38

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Peninsula (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +1.4%

Brisbane Roar B (A) 14.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peninsula face Brisbane Roar B in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peninsula a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Brisbane Roar B 14%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Peninsula and 1.1 for Brisbane Roar B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peninsula are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.43 for Brisbane Roar B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Peninsula vs Brisbane Roar B Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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